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Dollar Index Inches Higher as Data Curbs Recession Fears

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USD

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies settled higher for the third consecutive day at 98.15 supported by stronger US economic data. The retail sales rose by 0.7% in July beating estimates of 0.3%. The series of improving economic data (CPI, Retail Sales, Business inventories) helped in easing investors’ concerns over a possible recession signaled by the inversion of the yield curve. The US 10-year yields declined to a three-year low of 1.474%, and the US 30-year yields declined to an all-time low of 1.917%. The current drop in yields is signaling for additional easing measures by the Federal Reserve in the coming months. However, the dollar is gaining strength from the fact that the US economic outlook remains stronger than rivals, and the Federal Reserve has more room to act.

Metals

Gold prices continued to hover near a six-year high supported by the rising uncertainty over the global economic outlook and the Central Banks intentions to ease their monetary policy. The price of a gold ounce traded in a range between a support level of $1510, and a resistance level of $1528. Meanwhile, the price of a silver ounce drifted lower to $17.13, while palladium held steady near $1450.

Oil

Oil prices recovered partial losses as the US economic data eased recession fears. The US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007, which could be an early sign of a recession. As a result, the US stock market and oil prices suffered a sell-off. However, the solid US economic data helped in easing investors’ concerns and prices were soon bouncing up. The West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose to $55.39, and Brent futures edged higher to $59.05.

Major Economic Events

GMT Country Event Expectation Previous

12:30

US

Building Permits (Jul)

1.270

1.232

12:30

US

Housing Starts (Jul)

1.257

1.253

14:00

US

Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 

89.0

90.5

14:00

US

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 

97.2

98.4

17:00

US

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count

 

764

 
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