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Dollar Retreats From a two-week high ahead of key data

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Equities

Major U.S. indices kicked off the week on a higher note supported by last week’s gains. The Dow Jones and SPX500 posted their biggest weekly gain in six weeks. President Donald Trump bragged about the performance of the US stock market and said that the Dow Jones surpassed 25000 even before fixing the trade issues. Dow Jones closed at 25004 on Friday, its highest close in a month, and the strong performance continued during today’s Asian session where it traded at a high of 25090. SPX gained almost 1.5% last week and is now trading at a five-and-a-half month high of 2807. However, US stocks remain vulnerable to the developments of the trade war between China and the US, and the corporate earnings of the second quarter.

USD

The dollar index which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of major currencies retreated from a two-week high of 95.25 on Friday. The Fed confirmed in its monetary policy report to the Congress that they expect further gradual rates hikes as long as consistent with goals. However, the US economy could slow down if the trade spat between the US and its rivals persists. USDJPY ended the week at 112.33 to set its highest weekly close in six months. EURUSD rebounded from a two-week low of $1.1612 to settle at $1.1686. Also, GBPUSD bounced-off a two week low of $1.3102 to end the week at $1.3233. Volatility in FX pairs could rise this week as we await major economic indicators such as Consumer Price Index and Retail sales along with Fed Powell testimonies.

Metals

Gold prices tumbled to a fresh 2018 low of $1236 on Friday, and the ounce posted its lowest weekly close in a year. The low prices attracted buyers, and the ounce recovered to a high of $1245 during today's Asian session. The precious metal could remain under pressure as long as the Fed is set to continue with its interest rate path. However, any geopolitical development from the Putin-Trump summit on Syria and Ukraine could support prices. The Silver ounce also fell to a seven-month low of $15.63.

Oil

Oil prices remain unstable post the heavy drop that took place last Wednesday. Brent oil recovered slightly, but the West Texas Intermediate failed to bounce. Brent oil is hovering near $75 per barrel whereas as the West Texas Intermediate is settling near $70 per barrel. Oil prices could remain under pressure as the Trump administration is said to consider releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserves before the November election to lower Gasoline prices.

Major Economic Events

GMT Country Event Expectation Previous
12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.4% 0.9%
12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.5% 0.8%
22:45 NZ CPI (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5% 0.5%
22:45 NZ CPI (YoY) (Q2) 1.6% 1.1%



Disclaimer

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