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All Eyes Turn to U.S. Non-Farm Payroll

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On Thursday, the U.S. dollar fell as much as 0.5% vs. a basket of currency on FBI review of Clinton emails and as investors fear Trump victory. Yen has risen as much as 3% vs. the greenback this week. The U.S. dollar index fell as much as 30 pips to settle at 97.15.

Today, Markets are awaiting U.S. non-farm payroll, which is likely to record 170k and the unemployment rate could decline to 4.9% from 5.0%.

Gold settled again at $1,300, positively affected by a soft USD. Technically, as the precious metal is awaiting U.S. non-farm payroll, a higher than expected reading should be taken more bearish for the metal, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as bullish for the metal and could decline to $1,290.

Also on Thursday, the BoE dismissed its plan to cut interest rates, which it said would now move up or down, and increased its forecasts for the next year’s growth and inflation sharply due to the slide in GBP since the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

Due to the political criticism for its near-zero rates, the BOE reconsidered its view on when the UK’s economy will feel the pain of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. GBP extended its gains vs. USD and touched the psychological level of $1.25. Technically, cable is unlikely to trade above such level.

U.S. crude declined to $45 as OPEC agreement to cut oil production faces array of hurdles and as U.S. crude inventories rose for the week ended October. Technically, U.S. crude could settle at $45 by the end of the week.

The most important economic events:

  • USD Unemployment Rate (OCT): (GMT 14:30) – Important – Forecast (4.9%) – Previous (5.0%).
  • USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT): (GMT 14:30) – Important – Forecast (175k) – Previous (156k).
  • CAD Unemployment Rate (OCT): (GMT 14:30) – Important – Forecast (7.0%) – Previous (7.0%).
  • CAD Net Change in Employment (OCT): (GMT 14:30) – Important – Forecast (-15.0k) – Previous (67.2k).

Disclaimer
The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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