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Oil Continues to Rise

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Federal Reserve policymakers were divided in July over the urgency to hike interest rates soon; however, there is general agreement that more data are needed. According to the minutes, the door is still open to raise interest rates in 2016, but does not specify a timeframe for that.

The U.S. dollar index settled yesterday at 94.70.

The Greenback rose vs. a basket of currencies as USD received support from expectations that the Fed Reserve will spot further lights on its comments within July’s meeting, which it stated that near-term risks to the U.S. economy has mitigated. 

On Wednesday, GBP surged vs. USD and settled above $1.31, as UK jobless rate’s dropped in June. From a technical point of view, Cable could settle above $1.30 during the course of the week, backed by strong UK data. While the outlook remains negative in the medium-term the trend is towards $1.25 and $1.27 levels.

Euro rose to $1.13 vs. USD, the highest level since mid-June, before returning to $1.1280. Fiber could continue trading sideways in anticipation of important economic data.

Gold settled at $1,345, in conjunction with July’s recent Fed policy meeting. The yellow metal could trade above $1,340.    

Oil prices rose slightly yesterday, backed by an unexpected decline in U.S. inventories. Oil settled near $47 and could re-test such level during the course of the day.

The most important economic events:

  • EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL): (GMT: 11:00) Medium – Forecast (-0.5%) – Previous (0.2%).
  • EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL F): (GMT: 11:00) Medium – Forecast )0.1%) – Previous (0.2%).
  • USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 13) :( GMT 14:30) Medium – Forecast (265k) – Previous (266k).
  • USD Continuing Claims (AUG 6) :( GMT 14:30) Medium – Forecast (2141k) – Previous (2155k).
  • USD Philadelphia Fed Index (AUG): :( GMT 14:30) Medium – Forecast (2) – Previous (-2.9).

Disclaimer
The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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