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Euro Under Pressure

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USD surged vs. a basket of currencies amid lack of U.S. economic data. USD dollar index settled above 94.20.

EUR declined against USD as German data showed a contraction in the industrial sector for the second month in a row. EUR traded below $1.1360 and could decline further to $1.13.

GBP settled yesterday, as the new series of warnings about the economic impact of Britain's exit from the European Union were not enough to extend the wave of currency losses incurred over the five sessions. The pound sterling is awaiting GBP Industrial Production and could re-test $1.44.

A key economic consultant to the Prime Minister of Japan said yesterday that, “Japan could intervene in FX markets if the yen strengthens to 90-95 per USD, even if that upsets the U.S. Following this the USD surged above 109 levels vs. JPY and could touch 110 levels.

Gold prices slid yesterday to their lowest levels in two weeks, negatively affected by strong USD. On the other hand, the yellow metal pared its losses, trading at $1,265, and could decline further to $1,250.

Oil pared its losses due to Canada's wildfires and oil markets could be affected by U.S. weekly inventories. WTI traded yesterday above $44.60 and could re-test $45 during the course of the day.

The most important economic events:

  • GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR): (GMT 10:30) Medium – Forecast (0.5%) – Previous (-0.3%).
  • GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR) : (GMT 10:30) Medium – Forecast (-0.4%) – Previous (-0.5%)
  • GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (MAR): (GMT 10:30) Medium – Forecast (0.3%) – Previous (-1.1%)
  • USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 6): (GMT 16:30) Medium – Forecast (N/A) – Previous (2784k)
  • USD Monthly Budget Statement (APR): (GMT 20:00) Medium – Forecast ($110.0b) – Previous ($156.7b)

The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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