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The U.S. Dollar Declines

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USD declined at the beginning of the week; negatively affected by the sell-off orders, amid speculation that the Federal Reserve could adopt a cautious tone at its meeting this week.  USD index erased the gains of last Friday and traded at 94.60.

USD dropped from 111.90, fell to its lowest level vs. JPY, and touched 110.85. Traders are looking for profit taking by selling the USD, despite expectations that the BOJ could expand its stimulus measures at Thursday’s meeting. On the other hand, New U.S. home sales unexpectedly declined in March, but the decline was concentrated in the West region, suggesting that the housing market continued to strengthen.

Euro pared its losses and traded at $1.1250, thanks to weak USD. The European single currency could be affected by a lack of relevant data.

The Pound surged to its best exchange rate in nearly 10-weeks, backed by Britain's 'In' campaign and the statements of Barack Obama. Obama has warned Britain’s voters that it could take up to 10-years to strike a trade deal with the United States from outside the EU.

From a technical point of view, GBP traded below $1.45 and breaking such level could help the cable to achieve further gains.  

Gold failed to hold its gains and traded at $1,235. The yellow metal is awaiting a Federal Reserve meeting later on this week.

Oil prices fell as investors took profits following last week's strong rally. WTI traded below $43 and could decline further to $42.50.

The most important economic events:

  • USD Durable Goods Orders (MAR P): (GMT 14:30) – Important – Forecast (1.9%) – Previous (-3.0%).
  • USD Durables Ex Transportation (MAR P): (GMT 14:30) – Important – Forecast (0.5%) – Previous (-1.3%)
  • USD Consumer Confidence (APR): (GMT 16:00) – Important – Forecast (96.0) – Previous (96.2)

The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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