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All Eyes on U.S. Jobs Data

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On Thursday, the European Central Bank upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts for 2016. The ECB raised its 2016 inflation forecast to 0.2% compared to a previous forecast of 0.1%.

EUR declined yesterday vs. USD, negatively affected by the statements of ECB President Mario Draghi. On the other hand, the ECB cut its outlook for the core price growth of 2016.

EUR is trading at 1.1150 vs. USD as the pair is awaiting U.S. jobs data later on today. Investors expect U.S. employment data to show a non-farm payroll increase of about 164k, while the unemployment rate drops to 4.9%. Better than expected reading could make the fiber decline to $1.11. 

GBP declined yesterday to $1.44 vs. USD, amid expectations that the Pound would fall 9% against the greenback if the UK voted to leave the EU. The Pound was affected by such poll and could decline further by the end of the trading session of the week.

Gold prices settled on Thursday, awaiting U.S. jobs data. Better than expected reading could push the yellow metal to test the psychological level of $1,200.  On the other hand, disappointing data could lead the precious metal to $1,230.

Oil prices settled on Thursday as Saudi Arabia promised not to flood the market with extra oil. Although OPEC failed to reach an agreement on an oil production ceiling, as Iran insisted on its right to increase production.

The most important economic events:

  • USD Unemployment Rate (MAY): (GMT 14:30) Important – Forecast (4.9%) – Previous (5.0%).
  • USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (MAY): (GMT 14:30) Important – Forecast (160k) – Previous (160k).
  • USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (MAY): (GMT 16:00) Important – Forecast (55.4) – Previous (55.7).

Disclaimer
The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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