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US Federal Reserve Shed Light on Risk of Global Slowdown

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The Fed meeting minutes showed a divergence of views among Members, but it was agreed the risks of the slowing global economy requires caution. Most Fed members see that the global economic and financial situation still carries significant downside risk, according to the minutes of 15th-16th March.

Policymakers had noted at the close of that meeting that they expect to hike rates twice this year, but the timing of the hikes stayed undecided. The USD index declined by 10 points against a basket of currencies to settle at 94.50. 

USD/JPY touched the weakest level since October 2014 and traded at 109.30. The statements of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe negatively affected the pair as he said, “countries should avoid competitively devaluing their currencies.”

USD pared its losses against JPY and traded below 110 levels.

Euro rose against USD once again and traded at $1.14, thanks to delayed interest rate hikes this month. The pair could re-test levels of $1.15 during the course of the week.

On Wednesday, GBP/USD fell to $1.4050, negatively affected by ICM opinion poll. The ICM recent poll finds the support for Britain to stay in the EU has fallen slightly, but remains one point ahead of those supporting the Brexit campaign. On the other hand, the pound pared its losses vs. USD and traded at $1.41, thanks to the US Fed meeting. GBP outlook remains negative and may decline further.

Gold settled into sideways trading ranges, affected by US Fed meeting and the possibility of an interest rate hike. The yellow metal traded in a limited range on Wednesday at $1,222 and could be stable at $1,225 during the course of today.  

On Wednesday, oil prices surged 4%, after the US government announced a sudden drop in domestic crude stockpiles last week. 

The most important economic events:

  • USD Fed's Yellen in New York, with Greenspan, Bernanke and Volcker: (GMT 23:00) Important
  • USD Consumer Credit (FEB): (GMT 21:00) – Medium – Forecast ($14.900b) – Previous ($10.538b).
  • USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 2): (14:30) – Medium – Forecast (270k) – Previous (276k). 

Disclaimer
The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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