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Euro Awaiting ECB's Meeting

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The market seems to be very cautious today, as the European Central Bank may expand its aggressive quantitative-easing programme and may cut rates further into negative territory. The markets expect the ECB will expand its monthly 60 bln assets purchase programme beyond the suggested deadline of March 2017.

EUR rose against USD by 5% despite monetary policy variation on the other side of the world, which began with the Fed raising interest rates for the first time in ten years.

The ECB is expected to cut the deposit rate to -0.40% and may increase monthly asset purchases to about 70 billion.

The euro will react dramatically if Draghi extended stimulus measures beyond expectations. In case we see a reduction of interest rates to 50% on deposits or the programme is expanded to 90 billion euros a month; the euro may decline to $1.05 levels. On the other hand, Draghi may cut the deposit rate by at least 10 basis points. It is possible that the euro will continue trading in a narrow range and we could see sharp fluctuations due to the uncertainty that will be taking place in the euro area over the coming period.

Gold was negatively affected by lack of US economic data and strong USD. Gold declined to $1,245 before climbing back to $1,251. The yellow metal is awaiting today’s key ECB meeting.

USD/JPY rose to 113, the pair may re-test levels of 114.40 during today's trading session.

Yesterday, Oil prices rose at the end of the trading session in spite of U.S. crude inventory being increased more than last week.

The most important economic events:

  • EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (MAR 10): (GMT 14:45) Very Important – Expected (0.05%) – Previous (0.05%).
  • EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (MAR 10): (GMT 14:45) Important – Expected (-0.40%) – Previous (-0.40%).
  • EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility (MAR 10): (GMT 14:45) Important – Expected (0.30%) – Previous (0.30%)
  • ECB Press Conference: (GMT 14:45) Important
  • USD Monthly Budget Statement (FEB): GMT 14:45) Medium – Expected (-$200.0b) – Previous (-$192.4b)

Disclaimer
The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

 

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